Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 7.970001 9.158064 10.439763 11.922430 13.587375 15.396277 17.507265
2026-01-25 6.224361 7.827064 9.692460 12.012416 14.807797 18.054205 22.095618
2026-02-01 5.320230 7.093262 9.260087 12.081246 15.632974 19.929799 25.491957
2026-02-08 4.566405 6.422786 8.794185 12.011200 16.221896 21.501749 28.572227
2026-02-15 3.975000 5.862685 8.370014 11.895508 16.667465 22.837189 31.340343
2026-02-22 3.558818 5.480905 8.125780 11.966214 17.321985 24.436166 34.491000
2026-03-01 3.293023 5.273384 8.086231 12.289108 18.306801 26.491681 38.316155
2026-03-08 2.919967 4.864722 7.716749 12.101926 18.547083 27.520441 40.765659
2026-03-15 2.514204 4.360634 7.157421 11.582922 18.258973 27.770849 42.110754
2026-03-22 2.366405 4.244185 7.165697 11.899096 19.193267 29.782556 46.021700
2026-03-29 2.214295 4.103694 7.120953 12.122480 19.989181 31.616261 49.739076
2026-04-05 2.011142 3.856407 6.883795 12.021430 20.273002 32.693299 52.373588
2026-04-12 1.818500 3.611578 6.635845 11.892451 20.515694 33.735791 55.031537
2026-04-19 1.670527 3.431102 6.479841 11.900367 20.971392 35.118906 58.261429
2026-04-26 1.553508 3.294226 6.384590 11.997257 21.566181 36.730414 61.891396
2026-05-03 1.420509 3.113087 6.195859 11.917706 21.858832 37.869229 64.817363
2026-05-10 1.296564 2.936089 5.998809 11.806240 22.084307 38.899559 67.598307
2026-05-17 1.209294 2.822925 5.908546 11.875276 22.614981 40.438259 71.242481
2026-05-24 1.161463 2.785770 5.956975 12.196442 23.595048 42.750112 76.221879
2026-05-31 1.056619 2.617241 5.739868 12.010356 23.666538 43.542521 78.720531
2026-06-07 0.925755 2.377441 5.362812 11.494868 23.114492 43.248420 79.384572
2026-06-14 0.893420 2.354118 5.416873 11.808913 24.085092 45.596064 84.580970
2026-06-21 0.853822 2.309973 5.424447 12.030813 24.892907 47.687148 89.405006